Uncertainty Bounds Methodology¶

Quantifying and reporting uncertainty in emission estimates.

Why Uncertainty Matters¶

Emission estimates are approximations. Reporting without uncertainty: - Implies false precision - Violates ISO 14064 requirements - Reduces credibility

Proper uncertainty reporting: - Enables informed decision-making - Supports third-party verification - Meets compliance standards

Sources of Uncertainty¶

1. Emission Factor Uncertainty¶

Factors are estimates, not measurements:

Source	Typical Uncertainty
Provider-specific	±10-15%
Academic research	±25-35%
Model extrapolation	±40-60%
Fallback estimates	±80-100%

2. Activity Data Uncertainty¶

Token counts from API responses:

Source	Uncertainty
Verified API response	±1%
Estimated from text	±5-10%
Unknown	±20%

OpenClaw uses API-reported tokens: ±1% uncertainty.

3. Grid Carbon Uncertainty¶

Grid intensity varies:

Source	Uncertainty
Real-time API	±5%
Regional average	±20%
World average	±30%

OpenClaw default (400 gCO₂/kWh): ±30% uncertainty.

Calculation Method¶

Combined Uncertainty¶

Using root sum of squares (RSS):

Combined = √(EF² + AD² + GC²)

Where: - EF = Emission factor uncertainty - AD = Activity data uncertainty - GC = Grid carbon uncertainty

Example:

Combined = √(35² + 1² + 30²)
        = √(1225 + 1 + 900)
        = √2126
        = 46%

Simplified Approach¶

OpenClaw uses confidence-based mapping for simplicity:

function confidenceToUncertainty(confidence: number) {
  if (confidence >= 0.7) return { lower: 0.85, upper: 1.15 }; // ±15%
  if (confidence >= 0.5) return { lower: 0.70, upper: 1.30 }; // ±30%
  if (confidence >= 0.3) return { lower: 0.50, upper: 1.50 }; // ±50%
  return { lower: 0.00, upper: 2.00 };                         // ±100%
}

Reporting¶

Point Estimate with Range¶

12.45 kg CO₂eq (8.7 - 16.2 kg, ±30%)

Confidence Interval¶

12.45 kg CO₂eq
95% CI: 8.7 - 16.2 kg

As Percentage¶

12.45 ± 3.7 kg CO₂eq (±30%)

CLI Output¶

openclaw green intensity

Output:

Carbon Intensity Metrics (TCFD)

  Per million tokens: 142.50 gCO₂eq
  Per API call:       6.7200 gCO₂eq

  Uncertainty range:  70% - 130%

Export Formats¶

GHG Protocol¶

{
  "scope3Category1": {
    "emissions_tCO2eq": 0.01245,
    "uncertainty_percent": 30
  }
}

ISO 14064¶

{
  "emissions": {
    "scope3Cat1_tCO2eq": 0.01245,
    "uncertainty_tCO2eq": 0.00374
  }
}

TCFD¶

{
  "uncertainty": {
    "lower": 0.70,
    "upper": 1.30
  }
}

ISO 14064 Requirements¶

ISO 14064-1:2018 requires:

1. Identify uncertainty sources
2. Quantify where possible
3. Report overall uncertainty
4. Explain methodology

Required Documentation¶

## Uncertainty Assessment

### Sources
1. Emission factors: No supplier-specific data (±35%)
2. Activity data: API-reported token counts (±1%)
3. Grid carbon: World average used (±30%)

### Methodology
Combined using root sum of squares:
√(35² + 1² + 30²) = 46%

Simplified to ±50% based on confidence mapping.

### Overall Uncertainty
Emissions: 12.45 kg CO₂eq
Uncertainty: ±50% (6.2 - 18.7 kg)

Verification¶

Third-party verifiers assess uncertainty:

Level	Materiality	Requirements
Limited	Higher	Plausibility check
Reasonable	Lower	Detailed testing

Most Scope 3 Cat 1 emissions verified at limited assurance.

Reducing Uncertainty¶

Short Term¶

1. Use consistent methodology
2. Document all assumptions
3. Track changes over time

Medium Term¶

1. Engage providers for data
2. Apply regional grid factors
3. Implement real-time monitoring

Long Term¶

1. Industry standardization
2. Provider disclosure requirements
3. Direct measurement capabilities

Best Practices¶

1. Always report uncertainty — Never imply false precision
2. Use conservative estimates — Upper bound, not best case
3. Document methodology — Enable verification
4. Update regularly — Improve as data improves
5. Be consistent — Same methodology year over year